The theoretical time of the marathon:
Roberto Albanesi
The update of this article was necessary because we receive too many e-mails of runners hoping to run a marathon in stratospheric times, starting on the half-performance marathon no less striking. The goal of many runners who run the first marathon is to get to the bottom, preferably not crawling. In fact to do so at least you still need to know about its value on the marathon, so you can set since the first few miles a pace that does not kill us once passed on the thirtieth mile. It is obvious that to get good at the bottom is also a function of the quality of training, but training is not good enough, unless you know what pace to go. We see the first mistakes not to commit.
The error of the 10 " - The reasoning is based on the concept (wrong) that performance is linear with distance. The reasoning is this: if time per km on the 10000 is 10" higher than the 5000 with the same measure, if I double the distance, just add 10 "/ km, so if I run a half to 4 '/ km, will run the marathon in 4'10" / km. Too bad that performance is not linear: about 200 m (20 ") an athlete can go fast as the 100 (10), without deterioration typical of when you stretch the distance. If it was worth the linearity if I run the marathon in 3 '/ km, about 84 km I should go to 3'10 "!
The error of 7' - To calculate the time of the marathon, many top coaches double the time of half and add 7. 'Although optimistic, many athletes for the calculation is valid but only for top runners. The mistake is to consider the constant deterioration regardless of the value of the athlete, in fact, the deterioration is proportional to the time of departure. For example, who runs the half marathon in 1h can run in 2h07 ', but who runs half the race in 2 hours not ever marathon in 4:07 a.m. '! In fact, for the athlete to move to the top half in 1h03'30 "is a much more significant slowdown (compared to its record of 1 hour) than that of his passing in 2h03'30". That is 3'30 "slow down for a top runner is much more" relaxing "than for a lover who almost did not notice much slowdown. In other words, go for the top runner for example by 3 '/ km to 3' 10 "/ km is much more pleasant place for an amateur go from 6 '/ km in 6'10" / km.
The exact calculation - From the last example is that it is the difference between time and the half-time the marathon that is constant, but is constant the relationship between the two total times. For any athlete this report is typical and we call it factor aerobic marathon (FAM). An athlete who has 1 hour on the half and 2h'06 'marathon has a 2.1-FAM (indeed it is almost a physiological limit), an amateur who 1:22 a.m.' 2:58 a.m. and 'has a FAM of 2.17 and so on. The theoretical time of the marathon is given by:
Tmara Tmez * = 2.1
Tmara Where is the time on the marathon and one on Tmez mezza.Per example, a runner from 1:19 a.m. 'on the half that is theoretically 2h45'54 ", while an athlete from 1:10 a.m. 'is theoretically 2h28'3.
Athletes anaerobic - If the athlete is not a pure runner (remember for example, that a marathon runner in the pure slow fibers represent over 90% of the total), the time is theoretically unattainable. An athlete can have characteristics suited to short distances (800 and 1500 m), can defend well (if trained) on the intermediate (eg 5000 m), but may break down (as expected time) on the marathon. This applies to all runners overweight or those who carry a lot of repeated work fast with large recoveries (the anaerobic ). It takes time to adapt to the marathon, not just two or three months of variation in training.
The Wall - It's no illusion that the walls be only psychological, the three hours, they clipped the wings of the ambitions of many marathoners, convinced that race in 3H1 'or 3 hours was only a matter of mind. One minute marathon is about 15 "on the 10,000 m. If the maximum result that an athlete can achieve is 36 ', run it for 35'45" and you will see that end in 36'30 ". The marathon is the question even more complicated because you may not end up ... Not that you can adjust your FAM for the illusion of going below the wall!
The exact calculation - If you are not marathon runners, pure (or you are not yet developed), the exact calculation is obtained with a higher FAM. Knowing that it makes no sense to spend without going through the marathon half, the more realistic estimates for the theoretical time of the marathon is:
Tmara = 2.15 * Tmez
For example, a runner from 1:19 a.m. 'is half the theoretically 2h49'51 " while an athlete from 1h10'30 "2h31'34 is theoretically".
The time of the first marathon - Do not think you can get the theoretical limit to the first experience (especially with a workout is not ideal). So you need an additional Retouch: do not consider your record on the half, but the average of the last three half-marathons (only valid ones for the last six months), multiplied by the figure of 2.2. The explanation of the method is simple: we can not run a good marathon if you are not stable enough on a half, it should not be considered the three best times, but the last three. If an athlete has significant fluctuations in performance, we must not ignore the fact, but to consider and take into account the negative performance. Want to know if you run the first marathon under three hours? If you have over the last three half marathons in an average of less than 1h21'50 ", with a good workout you have a good chance of succeeding (say 90%). The odds are reduced to zero if you can not run the half in 1:24 a.m. ' (This figure is obtained by considering the FAM of athletes that is developed as has been said about 2.1). The charm of the marathon is that all in all probability is a race!
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